Page 7 - WILMAPCO - Winter 2024

Delaware Population Consortium Releases
Annual Population Projections
COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR DELAWARE: 2020-2050
Population
2020 Census
2030
2040
2050
2020-2050 Population Change
New Castle 570,719 595,885 602,736 592,567 21,848
Kent
181,851
198,246
207,443
213,899
32,048
Sussex 237,378 293,406 331,363 365,362 127,984
DE Total
989,948
1,087,537
1,141,542
1,171,828
181,880
% of State Population
2020 Census
2030
2040
2050
New Castle 58% 55% 53% 51%
Sussex 24% 27% 29% 31%
Source: Delaware Population Consortium, Version 2023.0 November 2023
Kent
18%
18%
18%
18%
On October 27, the Delaware Population Consortium (DPC) adopted its most recent series
of population, household, and employment projections for the State of Delaware and its three counties. These figures are produced on an annual basis to provide policymakers, planners, and the general public with an agreed-upon set of numbers that factor into all levels of decision- making.
Overall, the projections show Delaware falls in line with the national trend of a slower growth as birth rates continue to fall. However, the state will still see an increase of about 181,000 in total population from 2020 through
2050 due to steady in-migration into Delaware.
During the next few decades, Delaware is expected to undergo several demographic changes in the composition of its residents. They include:
• New Castle County is expected to peak in population around 2040, then begin a slight decline.
• Sussex County will grow the most in numbers (127,000) and percentage (54%). Net in-migration is driving this growth.
• The 65 and over population will continue to grow statewide by 41% from 2020 to 2050. This population is expected to increase by approximately 45,000 in New
Castle County, topping out at about 139,000 residents over the age of 65 by 2050. This age group is expected to make up nearly a quarter of the county’s population by 2050.
• Sometime around 2027, Delaware’s natural population growth (births vs. deaths) will turn negative, meaning that more deaths than births will occur. The only growth expected will be based upon migration into the state.
For more details, or to view the full set of projections, please visit the Delaware Office of State Planning Coordination at https://stateplanning.delaware.gov/ demography/dpc-projection-info. shtml
Page 7