Page 12 - Tree Line - North Carolina Forestry Association - First Quarter 2024

What has been the impact of this death spiral? Our research shows deaths exceeded births in 87 of North Carolina’s 100 counties between 2020 and 2022 (Johnson, Parnell, & Bonds, 2023).
7 Powerful
Demographic Trends
Addressing North Carolina’s death spiral is a strategic business imperative. We
need able-bodied talent to fill crucial labor needs in the state’s booming economy. The natural population loss due to an excess
of deaths over births has substantially reduced the demographic impact of net migration gains, progressively slowing the state’s total population growth rate over the past three decades. After growing by 21.4% in the 1990s and 18.5% in the 2000s, the state experienced a 9.5% growth rate in the 2010s ( Johnson, Bonds, & Parnell, 2021).
In 2021, I identified seven powerful demographic trends — including slowing population growth, white population decline, and reduced life expectancies
— that are likely to disrupt business and commerce in the years ahead. Their power
is sufficiently disruptive to refer to them as “gale forces” (Johnson, Bonds, & Parnell, 2021).
One of these seven major factors
that’s being overlooked is the surge in deaths of despair, particularly among prime working-age males. Factors
such as the opioid crisis and mental health challenges have contributed to significant demographic depression in that population and sharply lowered workforce participation rates. And, even for those
in the workforce, many of these workers demonstrate reduced productivity owing to these premature disabilities and deaths. As a society, we need to devote a laser-like focus to the social determinants of health — one’s ZIP code and what resources are lacking where these workers live.
In addition, the workforce is aging sharply. We’re going to continue to see significant structural changes, since younger demographics are small and growing smaller.
Total Death Rate by County,
April 1, 2020 – July 1, 2022 (NC=24 deaths/1,000 population)
COVID-19 Death Rate by County, 2022 (NC=36 deaths/100,000 population)
Drug Overdose Death Rate by County, 2022 (NC-35 deaths/100,000 population)
REFERENCES CITED
CNBC, 2023, “America’s Top States for Business,” cnbc.com, July 11, available at https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/11/top-states-for-business-north-carolina.html.
CORE-NC, n.d., North Carolina Opioid Settlements, available at https://ncopioidsettlement.org
Johnson, J.H., Jr., Parnell, A.M. & Bonds, J.M., 2023, “North Carolina at a Demographic Crossroad: Loss of Lives and the Impact,” Kenan Institute White Paper, September, available at https:// kenaninstitute.unc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/North-Carolina-at-a-Demographic- Crossroad.pdf.
Johnson, J.H., Jr., Bonds, J.M., & Parnell, A.M., 2022. “Urgently Needed: Equity Tools to Navigate Demographic Gale-Force Wind Gusts,” North Carolina Medical Journal, Vol 83, available at https://ncmedicaljournal.com/article/55480-urgently-needed-equity-tools-to-navigate- demographic-gale-force-wind-gusts.
Johnson, J.H., Jr., Bonds, J.M., & Parnell, A.M., 2021, “Business Alert! Gale Force Demographic Wind Gusts Ahead,” Kenan Institute White Paper, August 25, available at https://kenaninstitute.unc. edu/publication/business-alert-gale-force-demographic-wind-gusts-ahead.
NCDHHS, 2023a, (Archive) COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Dashboard, available at https://covid19. ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/cases-and-deaths.
NCDHHS, 2023b, Combating North Carolina’s Opioid Crisis, available at https://www.ncdhhs.gov/ about/department-initiatives/overdose-epidemic.
NCDHHS, 2023c, North Carolina’s Opioid and Substance Use Action Plan, available at https://www. ncdhhs.gov/about/department-initiatives/overdose-epidemic/north-carolinas-opioid-and- substance-use-action-plan.
Simons, S., 2020, “Seniors are Working Longer — Out of Choice and Necessity,” NPR, January 7, available at https://www.npr.org/local/305/2020/01/07/794209698/seniors-are-working-longer- out-of-choice-and-necessity
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