Page 11 - Tree Line - North Carolina Forestry Association - First Quarter 2024

By James H. Johnson, Jr., PhD; William R. Kenan Jr. Distinguished Professor; UNC-Chapel Hill, Kenan-Flagler Business School
North Carolina is one of the nation’s most rapidly growing states, having added 4 million people since 1990. Growth has been driven
by net migration, with more people moving in than leaving the state. During the COVID-19
pandemic, for example, 307 newcomers arrived daily, making North Carolina the third most attractive migration destination in the country (Johnson, Parnell, & Bonds, 2023).
Arriving from nearly every state in the nation as well as abroad, the newcomers have transformed the racial and ethnic as well as the age, household, and economic composition of our state. North Carolina is far more diverse and prosperous today than it was three decades ago. Partly in recognition of the state’s enormously diverse talent pool, CNBC has recognized North Carolina as “America’s Top State for Business” for two consecutive years (CNBC, 2023).
However, the state’s rapid, migration-driven growth masks a troubling trend: increasing rates of death and
premature death that could, if left unchecked, derail the state’s economic growth and prosperity. On average,
317 North Carolinians died each day over the past two years — a sharp absolute increase over the 246 daily deaths during the 2010s (Johnson, Parnell, & Bonds, 2023).
A constellation of forces contributed to the increased deaths, including normal aging-related mortality, widespread chronic health conditions, a worsening substance abuse crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 has taken the lives of nearly 30,000 North Carolinians (NCDHHS, 2023a) — mainly working-
age individuals (18-64 years old) and the “young old” between the ages of 65 and 74, who reportedly still are active in the labor market in significant numbers (Simons, 2020). And substance abuse casualties increased by 60% during the pandemic — disproportionately among prime working-age males in some of the state’s most economically distressed counties — bringing the total to more than 36,000 deaths since 2000 (NCDHHS, 2023b).
Source: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-counties-total.html
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