Page 13 - Georgia Forestry - Issue2 - Spring 2018

than any state and the good business environment is why forest product man- ufacturers have made their way here.
There are other reasons why Wash- ington and Warrenton have reason to be optimistic besides the wood supply. Lynn Michaelis, a partner with Forest Economic Advisors, said the beetle kill in Canada has Canadian supply “on the downward trajectory.” The U.S. tariff on imported wood is also a factor.
“I would not be surprised to see another series of saw mill announcements over the next 12-24 months,” Michaelis said. “There is ample timber supply and profit margins are attractive. The price has got to go up. Log prices follow lumber prices by a one-to-two-year lag.”
Michaelis has been surprised for several years that wood has not rallied in the south. He’s watched, and waited, like the Browns and Bounds, and the price has stayed stagnant.
“I do not understand, for the life of me, why there hasn’t been a bigger capacity growth of lumber in the south,” Michaelis said. “It’s one of the mysteries for me. It was truly a depression for the wood products industry and I think the reason people have been hesitant to invest is how painful the history was. Lumber prices in 2009 were back to
OB McCorkle meets with Katherine Wood, owner of Miss Jane’s Restaurant in downtown Warrenton. She remains optimistic about the potential impact of the mill on the Main Street businesses.
where they were in 1931, in real terms.” The proposed mills represent a rally, which means loggers will be making paths through the forest, not just hunters. Bounds said his family leases just about every tract of land it owns to hunters to help meet the six-figure property tax bill. He also has a thriving business in cattle. You do what you have to do, he said. Reville is a real estate agent, as well as a
forest consultant.
“My dad would tell me, ‘If you will just
try and make something happen every day, you will be alright,’ ” she said.
Something is happening with wood... and in a big way.
The Bounce for
Main Street
It is 2 in the afternoon on Main Street in downtown Warrenton and there is not one glimmer of business. The reliable breakfast/lunch spot Miss Jane’s has been closed 30 minutes and taken with it the customers.
Could downtown be revitalized with the new mill, a three-minute drive away? OB McCorkle, the Executive Director of the Development Authority of Warren County and Warrenton, is hopeful.
“It’s just tremendous for our commu- nity,” McCorkle said, “The trickledown in the community will be tremendous.”
McCorkle said a few weeks after GP announced it was building a new sawmill, a local developer announced plans for a $2 million convenience store/gas station not far from the GP site.
“The recession hits rural areas harder and when it hits us it takes a lot longer to come back,” she said. “The recovery is finally coming around to rural areas. The announcement (of the mill) has already had an impact.”
Small businesses in Warrenton started to struggle in 2007, she said, and by 2010 they could not hold on and closed shop. The only thing on the windows of many storefronts is the grime of dust kicked up off Main Street.
“The past 10 years have been really rough,” McCorkle said.
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